{"id":15343,"date":"2022-02-03T15:54:53","date_gmt":"2022-02-03T14:54:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.ptvgroup.com\/?p=15343"},"modified":"2025-09-30T15:18:57","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T13:18:57","slug":"ev-uptake-how-to-forecast-demand-for-charging-stations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.ptvgroup.com\/en\/modeling-planning\/ev-uptake-how-to-forecast-demand-for-charging-stations\/","title":{"rendered":"EV uptake: How to forecast demand for charging stations"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]As one of the main contributors to fossil fuel-based emissions, the transport sector has a big role to play on the road to Net Zero. Switching to electric vehicles (EVs) provides one means (of many that are needed) to reduce road-based carbon emissions and with EV costs falling, battery technology improving, and emissions targets coming into force, the 2020s is set to see a huge transition to electrified transport. This will also boost demand for charging stations. Public EV charging point networks must therefore be designed to cater for this demand.<\/p>\n

The UK will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, with many other countries introducing similar bans by 2035 or 2040. In Germany, the government has set a target to have 10 million EVs<\/a> on the roads and 1 million public charging points installed by 2030. These levels are required to help meet carbon reduction plans and comply with EU standards on vehicle fleet emissions. However, there are currently only ~25,000 charging points in Germany, meaning 2,000 will need to be installed every week over the next decade to reach the target.<\/p>\n

Demand forecast for efficient planning<\/h2>\n

With EV charging infrastructure rollout seen as a necessary enabling mechanism, city authorities and central governments are tasked with planning an efficient and equitable system<\/a> that helps enable a society-wide transition to electrified mobility. To fully understand the challenge, the following aspects must be considered:<\/p>\n

Where and how much?<\/h4>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/2″][vc_single_image image=”15351″ img_size=”500×300″][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text]The market continues to suffer with inertia with EV uptake hampered, partly, by insufficient infrastructure, and low levels of uptake restricting the revenue opportunity from charge point installation. This problem exists partly because government and industry do not know how many charging points are required, or where and how they should be specified. By understanding this requirement, governments can plan efficiently and provide targeted grant support where the market would otherwise fail. Similarly, private investors and charge point operators could identify their investment opportunity and scale their plans accordingly.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

Connecting to the electricity grid<\/h4>\n

Siting charging points is far less constrained than the installation of petrol forecourts. However, a clear system for how and where you can connect to the electricity grid does not currently exist. By understanding where sufficient capacity exists therefore, installers will be able to make the most cost-effective choices when determining sites for their charging points. By understanding the potential demand for infrastructure, electricity network operators can plan their network upgrades accordingly and ensure that capacity constraints do not hamper infrastructure rollout.<\/p>\n

Charge Project: Demand for charging stations & network capacity<\/h2>\n

The deployment of charging infrastructure on scale requires coordination between transport planners, local\/city authorities, electricity network operators, and charging point installers. For the last two years we have been involved in an innovation project which brought together these elements: the UK-based Charge project<\/a> \u2013 led by SP Energy Networks, an electricity network operator. The Charge Project\u2019s purpose is to accelerate the deployment of public charging points for electric vehicles, whilst ensuring electricity networks and charging infrastructure provision is planned as efficiently as possible.\u00a0 To achieve this, project outputs are being made available to help local stakeholders understand where there is likely to be a growing demand for public charging points and where there is available network capacity.<\/p>\n

Transport model to anticipate charging requirements<\/h2>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text]To understand the demand requirements from a transport perspective we developed a sophisticated model<\/a> in PTV Visum<\/a>, which helps assess the complex relationship between travel patterns, car ownership, demographics, and housing type. In turn, this data has been used to understand how EVs might be driven, where they will be parked, and how much electricity they will require.<\/p>\n

With many external factors affecting the market however, it\u2019s tricky to predict exactly how EV uptake will play out from between now and 2050. This is why we developed future scenarios to help explore many of the uncertainties around the future of the EV market[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/2″][vc_single_image image=”15365″ img_size=”500×300″ add_caption=”yes”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]After considering a wide range of influences, we chose the two most critical issues: how EV uptake progresses (influenced by manufacturing supply, costs, future technology, etc.); and how usage of public charging might change (influenced by amount of EV users with or without a home charger, developments in technology, progress of EV rollout with support from industry or government, etc.). Instead of providing a single outlook therefore, the scenario analysis highlights a range of plausible outcomes: From \u201cSlow Progress\u201d to a \u201cOn course for Net Zero\u201d scenario in the years up until 2050, allowing analysis and decisions to be made with a robust approach accounting for future uncertainty.<\/p>\n

With the scenarios providing the overarching trends and EV uptake levels, this information was represented in the transport model to provide a detailed view of how uptake might progress and how travel patterns will affect the requirement for charging. Both EV uptake choice, estimated based on income, travel patterns, availability of off-street parking; and travel patterns were modelled down to an individual level. Representative charging demand profiles were then estimated for individual EVs, based on the following:<\/p>\n